DP10161 The Great Mortgaging: Housing Finance, Crises, and Business Cycles

Author(s): Òscar Jordà, Moritz Schularick, Alan M. Taylor
Publication Date: September 2014
Keyword(s): business cycles, financial crises, leverage, local projections, mortgage lending, recessions
JEL(s): C14, C38, C52, E32, E37, E44, E51, G01, G21, N10, N20
Programme Areas: International Macroeconomics, Economic History
Link to this Page: www.cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=10161

This paper unveils a new resource for macroeconomic research: a long-run dataset covering disaggregated bank credit for 17 advanced economies since 1870. The new data show that the share of mortgages on banks’ balance sheets doubled in the course of the 20th century, driven by a sharp rise of mortgage lending to households. Household debt to asset ratios have risen substantially in many countries. Financial stability risks have been increasingly linked to real estate lending booms which are typically followed by deeper recessions and slower recoveries. Housing finance has come to play a central role in the modern macroeconomy.