Discussion paper

DP11427 Six Centuries of British Economic Growth: a Time-Series Perspective

This paper provides a time-series analysis of recent annual estimates of real GDP and industrial output covering 1270 to 1913. We show that growth can be regarded as a segmented trend stationary process. On this basis, we find that trend growth of real GDP per person was zero prior to the 1660s but then experienced two significant accelerations, pre- and post-industrial revolution. We also find that the hallmark of the industrial revolution is a substantial increase in the trend rate of growth of industrial output rather than being an episode of difference stationary growth.

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Citation

Crafts, N and T Mills (2016), ‘DP11427 Six Centuries of British Economic Growth: a Time-Series Perspective‘, CEPR Discussion Paper No. 11427. CEPR Press, Paris & London. https://cepr.org/publications/dp11427