DP11733 The Globalization Risk Premium

Author(s): Jean-Noël Barrot, Erik Loualiche, Julien Sauvagnat
Publication Date: December 2016
JEL(s): F11, F4, G14
Programme Areas: Financial Economics, International Macroeconomics and Finance
Link to this Page: www.cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=11733

We investigate how globalization is reflected in asset prices. We use shipping costs to measure firms' exposure to globalization. Firms in low shipping cost industries carry a 8 percent risk premium, suggesting that their cash-flows covary negatively with investors' marginal utility. We find that the premium emanates from the risk of displacement of least efficient firms triggered by import competition. These findings suggest that foreign productivity shocks are associated with times when consumption is dear for investors. We discuss conditions under which a standard model of trade with asset prices can rationalize this puzzle.