DP11743 The Historical Evolution of the Wealth Distribution: A Quantitative-Theoretic Investigation

Author(s): Joachim Hubmer, Per Krusell, Anthony A. Smith Jr
Publication Date: January 2017
Programme Areas: Public Economics, Macroeconomics and Growth
Link to this Page: www.cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=11743

This paper employs the benchmark heterogeneous-agent model used in macroeconomics to examine drivers of the rise in wealth inequality in the U.S. over the last thirty years. Several plausible candidates are formulated, calibrated to data, and examined through the lens of the model. There is one main finding: by far the most important driver is the significant drop in tax progressivity that started in the late 1970s, intensified during the Reagan years, and then subsequently flattened out, with only a minor bounce back. The sharp observed increases in earnings inequality, the falling labor share over the recent decades, and potential mechanisms underlying changes in the gap between the interest rate and the growth rate (Piketty's r - g story) all fall far short of accounting for the data.