DP12382 Can Power-sharing Foster Peace? Evidence From Northern Ireland

Author(s): Hannes Felix Mueller, Dominic Rohner
Publication Date: October 2017
Keyword(s): conflict, elections, Northern Ireland, Peace, Power-Sharing, Terrorism
JEL(s): C26, D72, D74
Programme Areas: Public Economics, Development Economics
Link to this Page: www.cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=12382

In the absence of power-sharing, minority groups in opposition have powerful incentives to substitute the ballot with the bullet. In contrast, when power is shared among all major groups in society, the relative gains of sticking to electoral politics are larger for minority groups. After making the theoretical argument, we provide in the current paper an empirical analysis of the impact of power-sharing at the local level, making use of fine-grained data from Northern Ireland's 26 local district councils over the 1973-2001 period. We find that power-sharing has a sizable and robust conflict-reducing impact.