Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee Announcements

Committee Announcements

7 August 2017: The Committee's main conclusion is that since the last trough in 2013Q1, the euro area has been recovering at a slow but steady pace. This post-recession recovery is commensurate with that of the US recovery, considering it began later, after the double-dip European recession that followed the global financial crisis. Findings here.

1 October 2015: The Committee released its new findings. They reflect data publically available as of 15 September 2015. The committee declared that the trough of the recession that started after the 2011Q3 peak has been reached in 2013Q1. The trough signals the end of the second recession witnessed by the euro area after the financial crisis. The recession lasted six quarters; the 2011Q3-peak to 2013Q1-trough cumulative decline in output has been a mild 1.5 percent.

11 June 2014: The Committee observed that since early 2013 the euro area has witnessed a prolonged episode of extremely weak growth in economic activity: Euro area GDP has risen by less than 1% from 2013Q1 to 2014Q1 and labour markets have shown little change over that period. Had the improvement in economic activity been more significant, it is likely that the Committee would have declared a trough in the euro area business cycle in early 2013, most likely in 2013Q1. The lack of evidence of sustained improvement of economic activity in the euro area does, however, preclude calling an end to the recession that started after 2011Q3. Rather, consistent with the concerns expressed by the Committee at its October 2013 meeting, the euro area may be experiencing since early 2013 a prolonged pause in the recession that started after 2011Q3. You can read the Press Release here and the Findings here.

9 October 2013. The Committee convened following positive news stemming from a variety of sources (the European Commission, statistical agencies, forecasting institutions, international organizations, NowCasting.com) about economic activity in the euro area. The objective of the meeting was to determine whether there was enough evidence that the decline in economic activity that started after third quarter of 2011 had ended. The Committee decided that, while it is possible that the recession ended, neither the length nor the strength of the recovery was sufficient, as of 9 October 2013, to declare that the euro area has come out of recession and to rule out the possibility that the euro area might be experiencing only a pause in the recession that started after 2011Q3.  The Committee released its findings on 19 October.

15 November 2012: The Committee concluded that economic activity in the euro area peaked in the third quarter of 2011 and that the euro area had been in recession since then. The third quarter of 2011 marked the end of an expansion that began in the second quarter of 2009 and lasted 10 quarters. Although output increased 4.03 per cent from trough to peak, this was not enough to bring euro-area GDP back to its pre-financial crisis level: at the end of the expansion in 2011Q3, GDP was about 2% below its previous 2008Q1 peak. You can read the Press Release here and the Findings (with links to companion documents) here.

4 October 2010: The Committee determined that a trough in economic activity occurred in the second quarter of 2009. The trough marks the end of the recession that began in the first quarter of 2008. The recession lasted 5 quarters or 15 months. The total decline in output from peak to trough is 5.5 percent. Identifying the month of the trough is more difficult. The Committee found a clear trough in industrial production in April 2009. Sales data show a more erratic picture, and unemployment kept rising (this is not unusual at the end of recessions). Given the clear trough of industrial production the Committee declared April 2009 to mark the end of the recession, which began in January 2008 and lasted 15 months. You can read the Press Release here and the Findings here.

31 March 2009: The Committee announced that economic activity in the euro area peaked in the first quarter of 2008. The peak marked the end of an expansion that began in the third quarter of 1993 and lasted 57 quarters. Identifying the month in which activity peaked is more difficult for the euro area, but the Committee’s best judgement is January 2008. You can read the Press Release here and the Findings here.

22 September 2003: The Committee issued its first set of findings. It determined that three recessions took place over the period 1970 to 1998 and identified a “growth pause” in 2003. You can read the Press Release here and the Findings here.