EABCN Conference: Judgement and Combination in Forecasting and Policy Models




Judgement and Combination in Forecasting and Policy Models

London, 20-21 March 2014

A Euro Area Business Cycle Network (EABCN) Conference

The event is hosted by the Bank of England and sponsored by EABCN, cemmap and CAMA


Papers and presentation slides - main programme

Papers - poster sessions

Presentation guidelines (16:9)

Poster guidelines

List of participants (as of 19.03.2014)

Prudential Regulatory Authority offices - Visitor Information

Expense guidelines

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Judgement and expert knowledge is widely thought to be important in the successful practice of forecasting.  And for policymakers, forecasts also embody judgements about the state of the economy, the transmission of shocks and optimal policy responses which necessitate the use of structural models.  DSGE models estimated by Bayesian methods have become popular, partly because the models have well defined structural interpretations and because the Bayesian framework allows judgements about model properties to be embodied in priors.  Yet there is uncertainty about both model parameters and the correct model.  One response is to pool forecasts and models. And for all forecasters, the forecast loss function should in principle bear on the methods used.  These issues were never as important as in the aftermath of the world financial crisis, when macroeconomic forecasting models used by practitioners and policymakers proved unstable in the face of the crisis.  These events, evidently drawn from the tails of the distribution, also emphasised the importance of good forecast densities.  

This conference aims to bring together policymakers and academics interested in these issues.  Any relevant paper is welcome, but possible topics include:

•    Forecasting and Policy Making
•    Forecasters’ Objectives and Strategies
•    Using forecasts from expert forecasters
•    Conditional forecast densities
•    Forecast performance before, during and after the crisis
•    Priors and identification in Bayesian models for forecasting and policymaking

Key speakers include Todd Clark (FRBC and CEPR), Lars Peter Hansen (University of Chicago), Barbara Rossi (UPF and CEPR) and Frank Schorfheide (Penn and CEPR).

Raffaella Giacomini (UCL and CEPR)
George Kapetanios (QMUL)
Massimiliano Marcellino (Bocconi University, IGIER, EABCN  and CEPR)
Simon Price (BoE, City University London, CAMA and CFM)