An unusual recovery turning into a usual expansion

The CEPR-EABCN Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee deliberated on the 14th of March 2022 to assess the state of euro area economic activity. Real GDP returned to its pre-pandemic level in the final quarter of 2021, despite supply constraints, stringent pandemic restrictions due to the third COVID wave and higher energy prices. Investment and private consumption were important components of recovery, as was government consumption. In the final quarter of 2021, consumption growth eased while investment growth remained strong. The recovery has been heterogeneous, with the countries and the economic sectors worst hit by the shock recovering at a faster pace. The euro area has grown faster in the recovery so far than the United States, a reflection of the euro area’s deeper contraction during the recession itself. Employment protection measures adopted in various European countries limited the decline in employment, which returned faster to pre-pandemic levels in the euro area than in the US.

The full statement of the CEPR-EABCN Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee is available here.

 

About the Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee

The CEPR-EABCN Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee establishes the chronology of recessions and expansions of the eleven original euro area member countries plus Greece for 1970-1998, and of the entire euro area from 1999 onwards. 

It also comments, in the spring and in the fall, on the current state of aggregate economic activity in the euro area and launches research initiatives designed to better monitor and understand aggregate economic developments in the euro area.

Dating activities and bi-annual statements on the state of euro area economic activity are conducted in total independence of EABCN. Research initiatives launched and pursued by the Committee are subject to the approval and evaluation of the EABCN Scientific Committee.

The Committee is currently composed of the following members

Philippe Weil (chair), ULB and CEPR
Refet Gurkaynak (vice-chair), Bilkent University and CEPR
John Fernald, INSEAD, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and CEPR
Evi Pappa, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid and CEPR
Antonella Trigari, Bocconi University and CEPR

The Committee’s research assistant and rapporteur is Isabel Mico Millan, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid.

Philippe Weil

Professor of Economics Professor of economics, Solvay Brussels School of Economics and Business ECARES, ULB

John Fernald

Senior Research Adviser Schroders Chaired Professor of European Competitiveness and Reform and Professor of Economics European Institute of Business Administration (INSEAD)

Evi Pappa

Full Professor Universidad Carlos III de Madrid

Antonella Trigari

Research Fellow Research Fellow Research Fellow Associate Professor Research Fellow Research Fellow Research Fellow Centre for Economic Policy Research; Research Fellow Associate Professor, Department of Economics; Research Fellow, IGIER Bocconi University