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The latest findings of the CEPR-EABCN Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee (EABCDC)

eabcdc_findings_december2022.pdf

PDF document / 2.36 MB

Back to slower growth rates in the Euro Area

The CEPR-EABCN Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee deliberated on 27 December 2022 to assess the state of euro area economic activity, relying on quarterly data through the third quarter of the year. Across euro area countries, some of the dispersion caused by the Covid shock has dissipated but differences in the recovery are still notable. As a whole, a fast recovery out of the Covid recession has reverted to roughly the slow pace of pre-pandemic euro area GDP growth. The present euro area recovery has been changing rhythm, impacted by the evolution of the pandemic and the energy crisis that has followed the Russian invasion of the Ukraine. Many contours of euro area cyclical activity can be traced to these exogenous shocks rather than to endogenous dynamics.

The full statement of the CEPR-EABCN Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee is available here.

About the Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee

The CEPR-EABCN Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee establishes the chronology of recessions and expansions of the eleven original euro area member countries plus Greece for 1970-1998, and of the entire euro area from 1999 onwards. 

It also comments, in the spring and in the fall, on the current state of aggregate economic activity in the euro area and launches research initiatives designed to better monitor and understand aggregate economic developments in the euro area.

Dating activities and bi-annual statements on the state of euro area economic activity are conducted in total independence of EABCN. Research initiatives launched and pursued by the Committee are subject to the approval and evaluation of the EABCN Scientific Committee.
 

The Committee is currently composed of the following members

Refet Gurkaynak (vice-chair), Bilkent University and CEPR
John Fernald, INSEAD, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and CEPR
Evi Pappa, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid and CEPR
Antonella Trigari, Bocconi University and CEPR

John Fernald

Senior Research Adviser Schroders Chaired Professor of European Competitiveness and Reform and Professor of Economics European Institute of Business Administration (INSEAD)

Evi Pappa

Full Professor Universidad Carlos Iii De Madrid

Antonella Trigari

Research Fellow Research Fellow Associate Professor, Department of Economics; Research Fellow, IGIER Bocconi University; Research Fellow Bocconi University & BAFFI-Carefin Centre; Research Fellow Bocconi University, IGIER; Associate Professor Research Fellow Research Fellow Centre for Economic Policy Research; Research Fellow