Discussion Paper Details

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Title: When Is The Best Time To Give Birth - Career Effects Of Early Birth Decisions

Author(s): Sylvia Frühwirth-Schnatter, Christoph Pamminger, Andrea Weber and Rudolf Winter-Ebmer

Publication Date: September 2014

Keyword(s): family gap, fertility, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, Multinomial Logit, Panel Data, timing of birth and Transition Data

Programme Area(s): Labour Economics

Abstract: Using Bayesian Markov chain clustering analysis we investigate career paths of Austrian women after their first birth. This data-driven method allows characterizing long-term career paths of mothers over up to 19 years by transitions between parental leave, non-employment and different forms of employment. We, thus, classify women into five cluster-groups with very different long-run career costs of childbearing. We model group membership with a multinomial specification within the finite mixture model. This approach gives insights into the determinants of the long-run family gap. Giving birth late in life may lead very diverse outcomes: on the one hand, it increases the odds to drop out of labor force, and on the other hand, it increases the odds to reach a high-wage career track.

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Bibliographic Reference

Frühwirth-Schnatter, S, Pamminger, C, Weber, A and Winter-Ebmer, R. 2014. 'When Is The Best Time To Give Birth - Career Effects Of Early Birth Decisions'. London, Centre for Economic Policy Research.