Citation

Discussion Paper Details

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Title: Austerity

Author(s): Harris Dellas and Dirk Niepelt

Publication Date: December 2014

Keyword(s): austerity, credit rationing, default, growth, incomplete information, investment, pooling equilibrium and separating equilibrium

Programme Area(s): International Macroeconomics

Abstract: We shed light on the function, properties and optimal size of austerity using the standard sovereign model augmented to include incomplete information about credit risk. Austerity is defined as the shortfall of consumption from the level desired by a country and supported by its repayment capacity. We find that austerity serves as a tool for securing a more favorable loan package; that it is associated with over-investment even when investment does not create collateral; and that low risk borrowers may favour more to less severe austerity. These findings imply that the amount of fresh funds obtained by a sovereign is not a reliable measure of austerity suffered; and that austerity may actually be associated with higher growth. Our analysis accommodates costly signalling for gaining credibility and also assigns a novel role to spending multipliers in the determination of optimal austerity.

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Bibliographic Reference

Dellas, H and Niepelt, D. 2014. 'Austerity'. London, Centre for Economic Policy Research. https://cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=10315