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Title: Long-run bulls and bears

Author(s): Rui Albuquerque, Martin Eichenbaum, Dimitris Papanikolaou and Sérgio Rebelo

Publication Date: January 2015

Keyword(s): stock market returns

Programme Area(s): Financial Economics

Abstract: A central challenge in asset pricing is the weak connection between stock returns and observable economic fundamentals. We provide evidence that this connection is stronger than previously thought. We use a modified version of the Bry-Boschan algorithm to identify long-run swings in the stock market. We call these swings long-run bull and bear episodes. We find that there is a high correlation between stock returns and fundamentals across bull and bear episodes. This correlation is much higher than the analogous time-series correlations. We show that several asset pricing models cannot simultaneously account for the low time-series and high episode correlations.

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Bibliographic Reference

Albuquerque, R, Eichenbaum, M, Papanikolaou, D and Rebelo, S. 2015. 'Long-run bulls and bears'. London, Centre for Economic Policy Research. https://cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=10351