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Title: Unemployment and Inflation in Ireland: 1926-2012

Author(s): Stefan Gerlach, Reamonn Lydon and Rebecca Stuart

Publication Date: May 2015

Keyword(s): historical statistics, import prices, inflation, Ireland and unemployment

Programme Area(s): Economic History and International Macroeconomics

Abstract: We study the determination of Irish inflation between 1926 and 2012. The difference between unemployment and the NAIRU is a significant determinant of inflation in a simple backward-looking Phillips Curve that incorporates import prices. While there is a break in 1979-80, when the link to Sterling was abandoned, this effect is present in the full sample and in the subsamples spanning 1926-1979 and 1980-2012. The econometric model assumes that the NAIRU follows a random walk.

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Bibliographic Reference

Gerlach, S, Lydon, R and Stuart, R. 2015. 'Unemployment and Inflation in Ireland: 1926-2012'. London, Centre for Economic Policy Research. https://cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=10567