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Title: Real-Time Forecasting for Monetary Policy Analysis: The Case of Sveriges Riksbank

Author(s): Jens Iversen, Stefan Laseen, Henrik Lundvall and Ulf Söderström

Publication Date: March 2016

Keyword(s): Forecast evaluation, Inflation targeting, Monetary policy and Real-time forecasting

Programme Area(s): Monetary Economics and Fluctuations

Abstract: We evaluate forecasts made in real time to support monetary policy decisions at Sveriges Riksbank (the central bank of Sweden) from 2007 to 2013. We compare forecasts made with a DSGE model and a BVAR model with judgemental forecasts published by the Riksbank, and we evaluate the usefulness of conditioning information for the model-based forecasts. We also study the perceived usefulness of model forecasts for central bank policymakers when producing the judgemental forecasts.

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Bibliographic Reference

Iversen, J, Laseen, S, Lundvall, H and Söderström, U. 2016. 'Real-Time Forecasting for Monetary Policy Analysis: The Case of Sveriges Riksbank'. London, Centre for Economic Policy Research. https://cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=11203