Discussion Paper Details

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Title: Six Centuries of British Economic Growth: a Time-Series Perspective

Author(s): Nicholas Crafts and Terence C Mills

Publication Date: August 2016

Keyword(s): growth reversal, industrial revolution, Malthusian model and trend growth

Programme Area(s): Economic History

Abstract: This paper provides a time-series analysis of recent annual estimates of real GDP and industrial output covering 1270 to 1913. We show that growth can be regarded as a segmented trend stationary process. On this basis, we find that trend growth of real GDP per person was zero prior to the 1660s but then experienced two significant accelerations, pre- and post-industrial revolution. We also find that the hallmark of the industrial revolution is a substantial increase in the trend rate of growth of industrial output rather than being an episode of difference stationary growth.

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Bibliographic Reference

Crafts, N and Mills, T. 2016. 'Six Centuries of British Economic Growth: a Time-Series Perspective'. London, Centre for Economic Policy Research.