Discussion Paper Details
Please find the details for DP11644 in an easy to copy and paste format below:
Title: Is it the "How" or the "When" that Matters in Fiscal Adjustments?
Author(s): Alberto F Alesina, Gualtiero Azzalini, Carlo A. Favero, Francesco Giavazzi and Armando Miano
Publication Date: November 2016
Keyword(s): fiscal adjustments plans, Fiscal multipliers, output effect and state-dependency
Programme Area(s): International Macroeconomics and Finance
Abstract: Using data from 16 OECD countries from 1981 to 2014 we find that the composition of fiscal adjustments is much more important than the state of the cycle in determining their effects on output. Adjustments based upon spending cuts are much less costly than those based upon tax increases regardless of whether they start in a recession or not. Our results appear not to be systematically explained by different reactions of monetary policy. However, when the domestic central bank can set interest rates -that is outside of a currency union- it appears to be able to dampen the recessionary effects of tax-based consolidations implemented during a recession. This finding could help understand the recessionary effects of European austerity, which was mostly tax based and implemented within a currency union.
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Alesina, A, Azzalini, G, Favero, C, Giavazzi, F and Miano, A. 2016. 'Is it the "How" or the "When" that Matters in Fiscal Adjustments?'. London, Centre for Economic Policy Research. https://cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=11644