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Discussion Paper Details

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Title: International Credit Supply Shocks

Author(s): Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi, Andrea Ferrero and Alessandro Rebucci

Publication Date: December 2017

Keyword(s): Capital Flows, Credit Supply Shock, Cross-border claims, Exchange Rates, House Prices, International Financial Intermediation and leverage

Programme Area(s): Financial Economics, International Macroeconomics and Finance and Monetary Economics and Fluctuations

Abstract: House prices and exchange rates can potentially amplify the expansionary effect of capital inflows by inflating the value of collateral. We first set up a model of collateralized borrowing in domestic and foreign currency with international financial intermediation in which a change in leverage of global intermediaries leads to an international credit supply increase. In this environment, we illustrate how house price increases and exchange rates appreciations contribute to fueling the boom by inflating the value of collateral. We then document empirically, in a Panel VAR model for 50 advanced and emerging countries estimated with quarterly data from 1985 to 2012, that an increase in the leverage of US Broker-Dealers also leads to an increase in cross-border credit flows, a house price and consumption boom, a real exchange rate appreciation and a current account deterioration consistent with the transmission in the model. Finally, we study the sensitivity of the consumption and asset price response to such a shock and show that country differences are associated with the level of the maximum loan-to-value ratio and the share of foreign currency denominated credit.

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Bibliographic Reference

Cesa-Bianchi, A, Ferrero, A and Rebucci, A. 2017. 'International Credit Supply Shocks'. London, Centre for Economic Policy Research. https://cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=12501