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Discussion Paper Details

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Title: Political Geography and Pre-Industrial Development: A Theory and Evidence for Europe 1000-1850

Author(s): Matteo Cervellati, Sara Lazzaroni, Giovanni Prarolo and Paolo Vanin

Publication Date: May 2019

Keyword(s): Borders, Centrality and Location, market potential, Pre-Industrial Development, Sovereign Polities and Space and Territorial Control

Programme Area(s): Macroeconomics and Growth

Abstract: We present a theory of the drivers, and a measurement of the patterns, of the evolution of historical sovereign polities over time and space in Europe, and we study their impact on pre-industrial urban development. We model changing state capacity and rule of law over space as resulting from strategic interactions between ruling elites. We characterize the endogenous evolution of equilibrium number, size, borders and type of polities. The framework characterizes the timing and location of appearance (and disappearance) of city states and the transition from domain reigns to modern territorial states. The model predicts the emergence of hard borders and a reversal in the role of locations' centrality for development. We measure the territorial evolution of sovereign polities by assembling geo-referenced yearly panel data on the political geography of each location in Europe for the period 1000-1850 and we investigate its implications for pre-industrial urban growth. Results document a changing role of polity size and type and a reversal of centrality from across to within polities which is associated to increasing importance of domestic market potential after the XVII century.

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Bibliographic Reference

Cervellati, M, Lazzaroni, S, Prarolo, G and Vanin, P. 2019. 'Political Geography and Pre-Industrial Development: A Theory and Evidence for Europe 1000-1850'. London, Centre for Economic Policy Research. https://cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=13719