Citation
Discussion Paper Details
Please find the details for DP13804 in an easy to copy and paste format below:
Full Details | Bibliographic Reference
Full Details
Title: Intertemporal Evidence on the Strategy of Populism
Author(s): Gloria Gennaro, Giampaolo Lecce and Massimo Morelli
Publication Date: June 2019
Keyword(s): American Politics, Electoral Campaign, populism and Text Analysis
Programme Area(s): Public Economics
Abstract: Do candidates use populism to maximize the impact of political campaigns? Is the supply of populism strategic? We apply automated text analysis to all available 2016 US Presidential campaign speeches and 2018 midterm campaign programs using a continuous index of populism. This novel dataset shows that the use of populist rhetoric is responsive to the level of expected demand for populism in the local audience. In particular, we provide evidence that current U.S. President Donald Trump uses more populist rhetoric in swing states and in locations where economic insecurity is prevalent. These findings were confirmed when the analysis was extended to recent legislative campaigns wherein candidates tended towards populism when campaigning in stiffly competitive districts where constituents are experiencing high levels of economic insecurity. We also show that pandering is more common for candidates who can credibly sustain anti-elite positions, such as those with shorter political careers. Finally, our results suggest that a populist strategy is rewarded by voters since higher levels of populism are associated with higher shares of the vote, precisely in competitive districts where voters are experiencing economic insecurity.
For full details and related downloads, please visit: https://cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=13804
Bibliographic Reference
Gennaro, G, Lecce, G and Morelli, M. 2019. 'Intertemporal Evidence on the Strategy of Populism'. London, Centre for Economic Policy Research. https://cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=13804