Citation

Discussion Paper Details

Please find the details for DP14091 in an easy to copy and paste format below:

Full Details   |   Bibliographic Reference

Full Details

Title: Did Trump's Trade War Impact the 2018 Election?

Author(s): Emily Blanchard, Chad P. Bown and HAN PING DAVIN CHOR

Publication Date: November 2019

Keyword(s): Agricultural Subsidies, Health Insurance Coverage, Retaliatory Tariffs, trade policy, Trade War and voting

Programme Area(s): International Trade and Regional Economics

Abstract: We findthat Republican candidates lost support in the 2018 US congressional election in counties more exposed to trade retaliation, but saw no commensurate electoral gains from US tariff protection. The electoral losses were driven by retaliatory tariffs on agricultural products, and were only partially mitigated by the US agricultural subsidies announced in summer 2018. Republicans also fared worse in counties that had seen recent gains in health insurance coverage, affirming the importance of health care as an election issue. A counterfactual calculation suggests that the trade war (respectively, health care) can account for five (eight) of Republicans' lost House seats.

For full details and related downloads, please visit: https://cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=14091

Bibliographic Reference

Blanchard, E, Bown, C and CHOR, H. 2019. 'Did Trump's Trade War Impact the 2018 Election?'. London, Centre for Economic Policy Research. https://cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=14091