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Discussion Paper Details

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Title: From Secular Stagnation to Robocalypse? Implications of Demographic and Technological Changes

Author(s): Henrique S. Basso and Juan F Jimeno

Publication Date: November 2019

Keyword(s): automation, Innovation and Population Ageing

Programme Area(s): Labour Economics

Abstract: Demographic changes and a new wave of innovation and automation are two main structural trends shaping the macroeconomy in the next decades. We present a general equilibrium model with a tractable life-cycle structure that allows the investigation of the main transmission mechanisms by which demography and technology affect economic growth. Due to a trade-off between innovation and automation, lower fertility and population ageing lead to a reduction in GDP per capita growth and the labour income share. Assuming different labour market configurations and scenarios for the integration of robots in economic activity only partially compensate for these effects.

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Bibliographic Reference

Basso, H and Jimeno, J. 2019. 'From Secular Stagnation to Robocalypse? Implications of Demographic and Technological Changes'. London, Centre for Economic Policy Research. https://cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=14092