Discussion Paper Details

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Title: Price Dividend Ratio and Long-Run Stock Returns: a Score Driven State Space Model

Author(s): Davide Delle Monache, Ivan Petrella and Fabrizio Venditti

Publication Date: November 2019

Keyword(s): Equity premium, present-value models, score-driven models, State space models and time-varying parameters

Programme Area(s): Financial Economics and Monetary Economics and Fluctuations

Abstract: In this paper we develop a general framework to analyze state space models with time-varying system matrices, where time variation is driven by the score of the conditional likelihood. We derive a new filter that allows for the simultaneous estimation of the state vector and of the time-varying matrices. We use this method to study the time-varying relationship between the price dividend ratio, expected stock returns and expected dividend growth in the US since 1880. We find a significant increase in the long-run equilibrium value of the price dividend ratio over time, associated with a fall in the long-run expected rate of return on stocks. The latter can be attributed mainly to a decrease in the natural rate of interest, as the long-run risk premium has only slightly fallen.

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Bibliographic Reference

Delle Monache, D, Petrella, I and Venditti, F. 2019. 'Price Dividend Ratio and Long-Run Stock Returns: a Score Driven State Space Model'. London, Centre for Economic Policy Research.