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Title: Does demand noise matter? Identification and implications

Author(s): Kenza Benhima and Céline Poilly

Publication Date: January 2020

Keyword(s): Business cycle, Information Friction, Noise shock and SVAR with sign restrictions

Programme Area(s): Monetary Economics and Fluctuations

Abstract: We assess the role of demand noise (excessive optimism or pessimism about demand) together with supply noise (excessive optimism or pessimism about supply). To do so, we propose a methodology to decompose business cycles into supply, demand, supply noise and demand noise shocks, using a structural vector autoregression model. Key to our identification of both supply noise and demand noise is the use of sign restrictions on survey expectation errors about output growth and about inflation. We show that demand-related noise shocks have a negative effect on output and contribute substantially to its fluctuations. Monetary policy and private information seem to play a key role in the transmission of demand noise shocks.

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Bibliographic Reference

Benhima, K and Poilly, C. 2020. 'Does demand noise matter? Identification and implications'. London, Centre for Economic Policy Research. https://cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=14365