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Title: Terrorist Attacks, Cultural Incidents and the Vote for Radical Parties: Analyzing Text from Twitter

Author(s): Francesco Giavazzi, Felix Iglhaut, Giacomo Lemoli and Gaia Rubera

Publication Date: February 2020

Keyword(s): National elections, Political parties, social media, Terrorism and Text Analysis

Programme Area(s): Macroeconomics and Growth and Public Economics

Abstract: We study the role of perceived threats from cultural diversity induced by terrorist attacks and a salient criminal event on public discourse and voters' support for far-right parties. We first develop a rule which allocates Twitter users in Germany to electoral districts and then use a machine learning method to compute measures of textual similarity between the tweets they produce and tweets by accounts of the main German parties. Using the dates of the aforementioned exogenous events we estimate constituency-level shifts in similarity to party language. We find that following these events Twitter text becomes on average more similar to that of the main far-right party, AfD, while the opposite happens for some of the other parties. Regressing estimated shifts in similarity on changes in vote shares between federal elections we find a significant association. Our results point to the role of perceived threats on the success of nationalist parties.

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Bibliographic Reference

Giavazzi, F, Iglhaut, F, Lemoli, G and Rubera, G. 2020. 'Terrorist Attacks, Cultural Incidents and the Vote for Radical Parties: Analyzing Text from Twitter'. London, Centre for Economic Policy Research. https://cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=14455