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Title: Why so Negative? Belief Formation and Risk Taking in Boom and Bust Markets

Author(s): Pascal Kieren, Jan Mueller-Dethard and Martin Weber

Publication Date: April 2020

Keyword(s): Belief formation, Market Cycles, Return Expectations and risk-taking

Programme Area(s): Financial Economics

Abstract: What determines investors' risk-taking across macroeconomic cycles? Researchers have proposed rational expectations models that introduce countercyclical risk aversion to generate the empirically observed time variation in risk-taking. In this study, we test whether systematic deviations from rational expectations can cause the same observed investment pattern without assuming unstable risk preferences. We let subjects form beliefs in two different market environments which resemble key characteristics of boom and bust markets, followed by an independent investment task. Those subjects who learned in the negative domain form overly pessimistic beliefs and invest significantly less in an unrelated ambiguous investment option. However, similar investment patterns cannot be observed for an unrelated risky investment option, where expectations are fixed. The proposed mechanism presents an alternative explanation for time-varying risk-taking and provides new implications for both theory and policy makers.

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Bibliographic Reference

Kieren, P, Mueller-Dethard, J and Weber, M. 2020. 'Why so Negative? Belief Formation and Risk Taking in Boom and Bust Markets'. London, Centre for Economic Policy Research. https://cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=14647