Discussion Paper Details
Please find the details for DP15479 in an easy to copy and paste format below:
Title: Economic Uncertainty and Divisive Politics: Evidence from the "dos Españas"
Author(s): Sandra Garcia-Uribe, Hannes Felix Mueller and Carlos Sanz
Publication Date: November 2020
Programme Area(s): Economic History and Macroeconomics and Growth
Abstract: This article exploits two newspaper archives to track economic policy uncertainty in Spain in 1905-1945, a period of extreme political polarization. We find that the outbreak of the civil war in 1936 was anticipated by a striking upward level shift of uncertainty in both newspapers. We study the dynamics behind this shift and provide evidence of a strong empirical link between increasing uncertainty and the rise of divisive political issues at the time: socio-economic conflict, regional separatism, power of the military, and role of the church. This holds even when we exploit variation in content at the newspaper level.
For full details and related downloads, please visit: https://cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=15479
Garcia-Uribe, S, Mueller, H and Sanz, C. 2020. 'Economic Uncertainty and Divisive Politics: Evidence from the "dos Españas"'. London, Centre for Economic Policy Research. https://cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=15479