Citation

Discussion Paper Details

Please find the details for DP15491 in an easy to copy and paste format below:

Full Details   |   Bibliographic Reference

Full Details

Title: Local Sectoral Specialization in a Warming World

Author(s): Bruno Conte, Klaus Desmet, Dávid Krisztián Nagy and Esteban Rossi-Hansberg

Publication Date: November 2020

Keyword(s): Geography, Global Warming, growth, migration, sectoral specialization, Space and Trade

Programme Area(s): Development Economics, International Trade and Regional Economics and Macroeconomics and Growth

Abstract: This paper quantitatively assesses the world's changing economic geography and sectoral specialization due to global warming. It proposes a two-sector dynamic spatial growth model that incorporates the relation between economic activity, carbon emissions, and temperature. The model is taken to the data at the 1º by 1º resolution for the entire world. Over a 200-year horizon, rising temperatures consistent with emissions under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 push people and economic activity northwards to Siberia, Canada, and Scandinavia. Compared to a world without climate change, clusters of agricultural specialization shift from Central Africa, Brazil, and India's Ganges Valley, to Central Asia, parts of China and northern Canada. Equatorial latitudes that lose agriculture specialize more in non-agriculture but, due to their persistently low productivity, lose population. By the year 2200, predicted losses in real GDP and utility are 6% and 15%, respectively. Higher trade costs make adaptation through changes in sectoral specialization more costly, leading to less geographic concentration in agriculture and larger climate-induced migration.

For full details and related downloads, please visit: https://cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=15491

Bibliographic Reference

Conte, B, Desmet, K, Nagy, D and Rossi-Hansberg, E. 2020. 'Local Sectoral Specialization in a Warming World'. London, Centre for Economic Policy Research. https://cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=15491