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Discussion Paper Details

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Title: On Identifying the Core of EMU: An Exploration of Some Empirical Criteria

Author(s): Michael J Artis and Wenda Zhang

Publication Date: August 1997

Keyword(s): Business Cycles, Cluster Analysis, ERM and Real Exchange Rates

Programme Area(s): International Macroeconomics

Abstract: The paper reports strikingly high correlations of the cyclical components of industrial production between the participant countries in the ERM. Supplementing these correlations with criteria based on real exchange rate volatility, trade and monetary policy conformity, cluster analysis is used to identify a core group of countries for which monetary union with Germany seems less controversial and to define other groups for which monetary union might be less advisable.

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Bibliographic Reference

Artis, M and Zhang, W. 1997. 'On Identifying the Core of EMU: An Exploration of Some Empirical Criteria'. London, Centre for Economic Policy Research. https://cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=1689