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Title: Fiscal Solvency and Fiscal Forecasting in Europe

Author(s): Michael J Artis and Massimiliano Marcellino

Publication Date: March 1998

Keyword(s): Deficits, Fiscal Policy, Forecast Accuracy, Maasticht treaty, Solvency and stability and growth pact

Programme Area(s): International Macroeconomics

Abstract: This paper analyses two features of concern to policy-makers in the countries of the prospective European Monetary Union: the solvency of their government?s finances; and the accuracy of fiscal forecasts. Extending the existing methodology of solvency tests, the paper finds that, with few exceptions, EU governments are insolvent, albeit debt/GDP ratios show signs of stabilizing. The accuracy of official short-term fiscal forecasts (those of the OECD) is analysed, using conventional techniques, and found to be reassuring.

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Bibliographic Reference

Artis, M and Marcellino, M. 1998. 'Fiscal Solvency and Fiscal Forecasting in Europe'. London, Centre for Economic Policy Research. https://cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=1836