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Title: Fiscal Forecasting: the Track Record of the IMF, OECD, and EC

Author(s): Michael J Artis and Massimiliano Marcellino

Publication Date: August 1999

Keyword(s): fiscal forecasting and forecast encompassing

Programme Area(s): International Macroeconomics

Abstract: We analyse the relative performance of the IMF, OECD and EC in forecasting the government deficit, as a ratio to DGP, for the G7 countries. Interesting differences across countries emerge, sometimes supporting the hypothesis of an asymmetric loss function (i.e., of a preference for underprediction or overprediction), and potential benefits from forecast pooling.

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Bibliographic Reference

Artis, M and Marcellino, M. 1999. 'Fiscal Forecasting: the Track Record of the IMF, OECD, and EC'. London, Centre for Economic Policy Research. https://cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=2206