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Discussion Paper Details

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Title: Housing Market Dynamics: On the Contribution of Income Shocks and Credit Constraints

Author(s): François Ortalo-Magné and Sven Rady

Publication Date: October 2001

Keyword(s): credit constraints, financial liberalization, housing prices and transactions, income shocks and overlapping generations

Programme Area(s): Financial Economics, Industrial Organization and International Macroeconomics

Abstract: This Paper presents a dynamic theory of housing market fluctuations. It develops a life-cycle model where households are heterogeneous with respect to income and preferences, and mortgage lending is restricted by a down-payment requirement. The market interaction of young credit-constrained households with older or richer unconstrained households generates the following results. (1) Current income of young credit-constrained households affects housing prices independently of aggregate income. (2) Housing prices and the number of housing transactions are positively correlated. (3) Housing prices over-react to income shocks. (4) A relaxation of the down-payment constraint triggers a boom-bust cycle. These results are consistent with patterns observed in the US and the UK.

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Bibliographic Reference

Ortalo-Magné, F and Rady, S. 2001. 'Housing Market Dynamics: On the Contribution of Income Shocks and Credit Constraints'. London, Centre for Economic Policy Research. https://cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=3015