Discussion Paper Details
Please find the details for DP3538 in an easy to copy and paste format below:
Title: Do We Really Know that the WTO Increases Trade?
Author(s): Andrew K Rose
Publication Date: September 2002
Keyword(s): bilateral, empirical, GATT, gravity, GSP, international, multilateral and panel
Programme Area(s): International Macroeconomics and International Trade and Regional Economics
Abstract: This Paper estimates the effect on international trade of multilateral trade agreements: the World Trade Organization (WTO), its predecessor the Generalized Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), and the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) extended from rich countries to developing countries. I use a standard ?gravity? model of bilateral merchandise trade and a large panel data set covering over fifty years and 175 countries. Despite an extensive search, I am basically unable to find positive significant effects of GATT/WTO membership on trade. The GSP does seem to have a strong effect, and is associated with an approximate doubling of trade.
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Rose, A. 2002. 'Do We Really Know that the WTO Increases Trade?'. London, Centre for Economic Policy Research. https://cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=3538