Citation

Discussion Paper Details

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Title: Relaxing the Restrictions on the Temporary Movements of Natural Persons: A Simulation Analysis

Author(s): Terri Louise Walmsley and L. Alan Winters

Publication Date: January 2003

Keyword(s): CGE, GATS Mode 4 and temporary migration

Programme Area(s): International Trade and Regional Economics

Abstract: While the liberalization of trade has been at the forefront of the global agenda for many decades, the movement of natural persons remains heavily guarded. Nevertheless, restrictions on the movement of natural persons across regions impose a cost on developing and developed economies that far exceeds that of trade restrictions on goods. This Paper uses a global CGE model to investigate the extent of these costs, by examining the effects of an increase in developed countries? quotas on both skilled and unskilled temporary labour equivalent to 3% of their labour forces. The results confirm that restrictions on the movement of natural persons impose significant costs on nearly all countries (over $150 billion in all), and that those on unskilled labour are more burdensome than those on skilled labour.

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Bibliographic Reference

Walmsley, T and Winters, L. 2003. 'Relaxing the Restrictions on the Temporary Movements of Natural Persons: A Simulation Analysis'. London, Centre for Economic Policy Research. https://cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=3719