Citation

Discussion Paper Details

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Title: Late Informed Betting and the Favourite-Longshot Bias

Author(s): Marco Ottaviani and Peter Norman Sørensen

Publication Date: October 2003

Keyword(s): favourite-longshot bias, parimutuel betting, private information and timing

Programme Area(s): Financial Economics and Industrial Organization

Abstract: According to the favorite-longshot bias observed in pari-mutuel betting, the final distribution of bets overestimates the winning chance of longshots. This Paper proposes an explanation of this bias based on late betting by small privately informed bettors. These bettors have an incentive to protect their private information and bet at the last minute, without knowing the bets simultaneously placed by the others. Once the distribution of bets is revealed, if bets are more informative than noisy, all bettors can recognize that the longshot is less likely to win than indicated by the distribution of bets.

For full details and related downloads, please visit: https://cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=4092

Bibliographic Reference

Ottaviani, M and Sørensen, P. 2003. 'Late Informed Betting and the Favourite-Longshot Bias'. London, Centre for Economic Policy Research. https://cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=4092