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Title: The Learning Cost of Interest Rate Reversals

Author(s): Martin Ellison

Publication Date: December 2003

Keyword(s): interest rate smoothing, learning and monetary policy

Programme Area(s): International Macroeconomics

Abstract: In this Paper, we suggest a new motivation for why central banks appear averse to reversing recent changes in their interest rate. We show, in a standard monetary model with forward-looking expectations, data uncertainty and parameter uncertainty, that there is a learning cost associated with interest rate reversals. A policy that frequently reverses the interest rate makes it more difficult for the central bank and private agents to learn the key parameters of the model. Optimal monetary policy internalizes this learning cost and therefore has a lower number of interest rate reversals. The incentive to reduce the number of interest rate reversals is in addition to the optimal policy inertia created by the presence of forward-looking expectations and uncertainty in the model.

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Bibliographic Reference

Ellison, M. 2003. 'The Learning Cost of Interest Rate Reversals'. London, Centre for Economic Policy Research. https://cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=4135