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Discussion Paper Details

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Title: Structural Changes in the US Economy: Bad Luck or Bad Policy?

Author(s): Fabio Canova and Luca Gambetti

Publication Date: January 2006

Keyword(s): inflation persistence, monetary policy, structural VARs, time varying coefficients and transmission of shocks

Programme Area(s): International Macroeconomics

Abstract: This paper investigates the relationship between time variations in output and inflation dynamics and monetary policy in the US. There are changes in the structural coefficients and in the variance of the structural shocks. The policy rules in the 1970s and 1990s are similar as is the transmission of policy disturbances. Inflation persistence is only partly a monetary phenomena. Variations in the systematic component of policy have limited effects on the dynamics of output and inflation. Results are robust to alterations in the auxiliary assumptions.

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Bibliographic Reference

Canova, F and Gambetti, L. 2006. 'Structural Changes in the US Economy: Bad Luck or Bad Policy?'. London, Centre for Economic Policy Research. https://cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=5457