Discussion Paper Details

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Title: The Geography of Output Volatility

Author(s): Adeel Malik and Jonathan Temple

Publication Date: February 2006

Keyword(s): Bayesian model averaging, geography, institutions and volatility

Programme Area(s): Institutions and Economic Performance and International Macroeconomics

Abstract: This paper examines the structural determinants of output volatility in developing countries, and especially the roles of geography and institutions. We investigate the volatility effects of market access, climate variability, the geographic predisposition to trade, and various measures of institutional quality. We find an especially important role for market access: remote countries are more likely to have undiversified exports and to experience greater volatility in output growth. Our results are based on Bayesian methods that allow us to address formally the problem of model uncertainty and to examine robustness across a wide range of specifications.

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Bibliographic Reference

Malik, A and Temple, J. 2006. 'The Geography of Output Volatility'. London, Centre for Economic Policy Research.