Discussion Paper Details

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Title: Was There a British House Price Bubble? Evidence from a Regional Panel

Author(s): Gavin Cameron, John Muellbauer and Anthony Murphy

Publication Date: April 2006

Keyword(s): bubble, house prices and ripple effect

Programme Area(s): International Macroeconomics

Abstract: This paper investigates the bubbles hypothesis with a dynamic panel data model of British regional house prices between 1972 and 2003. The model consists of a system of inverted housing demand equations, incorporating spatial interactions and lags and relevant spatial parameter heterogeneity. The results are data consistent, with plausible long-run solutions and include a full range of explanatory variables. Novel features of the model include transaction cost effects influencing the speed of adjustment, and interaction effects between an index of credit availability and real and nominal interest rates. No evidence for a recent bubble is found.

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Bibliographic Reference

Cameron, G, Muellbauer, J and Murphy, A. 2006. 'Was There a British House Price Bubble? Evidence from a Regional Panel'. London, Centre for Economic Policy Research.