Discussion Paper Details

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Title: New-Keynesian Macroeconomics and the Term Structure

Author(s): Geert Bekaert, Seonghoon Cho and Antonio Moreno Ibez

Publication Date: November 2006

Keyword(s): inflation target, monetary policy, Phillips curve and term structure of interest rates

Programme Area(s): Financial Economics

Abstract: This article complements the structural New-Keynesian macro framework with a no-arbitrage affine term structure model. Whereas our methodology is general, we focus on an extended macro-model with unobservable processes for the inflation target and the natural rate of output which are filtered from macro and term structure data. We find that term structure information helps generate large and significant estimates of the Phillips curve and real interest rate response parameters. Our model also delivers strong contemporaneous responses of the entire term structure to various macroeconomic shocks. The inflation target dominates the variation in the 'level factor' whereas monetary policy shocks dominate the variation in the 'slope and curvature factors'.

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Bibliographic Reference

Bekaert, G, Cho, S and Moreno Ibez, A. 2006. 'New-Keynesian Macroeconomics and the Term Structure'. London, Centre for Economic Policy Research.