Citation

Discussion Paper Details

Please find the details for DP7222 in an easy to copy and paste format below:

Full Details   |   Bibliographic Reference

Full Details

Title: Vanishing Third World Emigrants?

Author(s): Timothy J. Hatton and Jeffrey G Williamson

Publication Date: March 2009

Keyword(s): development, emigration, life cycle and Third World

Programme Area(s): Labour Economics

Abstract: This paper documents a stylized fact not well appreciated in the literature. The Third World has been undergoing an emigration life cycle since the 1960s, and, except for Africa, emigration rates have been level or even declining since a peak in the late 1980s the early 1990s. The current economic crisis will serve only to accelerate those trends. The paper estimates the economic and demographic fundamentals driving these Third World emigration life cycles to the United States since 1970 - the income gap between the US and the sending country, the education gap between the US and the sending country, the poverty trap, the size of the cohort at risk, and migrant stock dynamics. It then projects the life cycle up to 2024. The projections imply that pressure on Third World emigration over the next two decades will not increase. It also suggests that future US immigrants will be more African and less Hispanic.

For full details and related downloads, please visit: https://cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=7222

Bibliographic Reference

Hatton, T and Williamson, J. 2009. 'Vanishing Third World Emigrants?'. London, Centre for Economic Policy Research. https://cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=7222