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Title: The Equity Premium and the Business Cycle: the Role of Demand and Supply Shocks

Author(s): Peter N Smith, Steffen Sorensen and Michael R. Wickens

Publication Date: March 2009

Keyword(s): business cycles, demand and supply shocks, equity premium and stock returns

Programme Area(s): Financial Economics and International Macroeconomics

Abstract: This paper explores the effects of the US business cycle on US stock market returns through an analysis of the equity risk premium. We propose a new methodology based on the SDF approach to asset pricing that allows us to uncover the different effects of aggregate demand and supply shocks. We find that negative shocks are more important that positive shocks, and that supply shocks have a much greater impact than demand shocks.

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Bibliographic Reference

Smith, P, Sorensen, S and Wickens, M. 2009. 'The Equity Premium and the Business Cycle: the Role of Demand and Supply Shocks'. London, Centre for Economic Policy Research. https://cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=7227