Citation

Discussion Paper Details

Please find the details for DP739 in an easy to copy and paste format below:

Full Details   |   Bibliographic Reference

Full Details

Title: Illusive Persistence in German Unemployment

Author(s): Rolf J.V. Tschernig and Klaus F Zimmermann

Publication Date: November 1992

Keyword(s): Fractional Integration, Hysteresis, Long Memory, Persistence and Unemployment

Programme Area(s): Human Resources

Abstract: The non-stationarity of many macroeconomic time series has lead to an increased demand for economic models that are able to generate fragile equilibria. For instance, in this literature the natural unemployment rate is allowed to shift over time depending on past unemployment. Actually, many European unemployment series seem to exhibit a unit root or persistence. This view is questioned in the paper using German data on unemployment. A new class of time-series models, the fractionally integrated ARMA model, that allows the difference parameter to take real values, enables the researcher to separate long memory and short memory in the data. It is shown that using this approach the unit root hypothesis is rejected but unemployment exhibits long memory.

For full details and related downloads, please visit: https://cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=739

Bibliographic Reference

Tschernig, R and Zimmermann, K. 1992. 'Illusive Persistence in German Unemployment'. London, Centre for Economic Policy Research. https://cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=739