Citation

Discussion Paper Details

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Title: Cross-Country Causes and Consequences of the Crisis: An Update

Author(s): Andrew K Rose and Mark Spiegel

Publication Date: June 2010

Keyword(s): cross-section, current account, data, early warning, empirical, GDP, growth and recession

Programme Area(s): International Macroeconomics

Abstract: We update Rose and Spiegel (2009a, b) and search for simple quantitative models of macroeconomic and financial indicators of the "Great Recession" of 2008-09. We use a cross-country approach and examine a number of potential causes that have been found to be successful indicators of crisis intensity by other scholars. We check a number of different indicators of crisis intensity, and a variety of different country samples. While countries with higher income seemed to suffer worse crises, we find few clear reliable indicators in the pre-crisis data of the incidence of the Great Recession. Countries with current account surpluses seemed better insulated from slowdowns.

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Bibliographic Reference

Rose, A and Spiegel, M. 2010. 'Cross-Country Causes and Consequences of the Crisis: An Update'. London, Centre for Economic Policy Research. https://cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=7901