Citation

Discussion Paper Details

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Title: The Institutional Causes of China's Great Famine, 1959-61

Author(s): Xin Meng, Nancy Qian and Pierre Yared

Publication Date: September 2010

Keyword(s): central planning, development, food procurement, institutions, modern Chinese history and prices vs. quantities

Programme Area(s): Development Economics

Abstract: This paper investigates the institutional causes of China's Great Famine. It presents two empirical findings: 1) in 1959, when the famine began, food production was almost three times more than population subsistence needs; and 2) regions with higher per capita food production that year suffered higher famine mortality rates, a surprising reversal of a typically negative correlation. A simple model based on historical institutional details shows that these patterns are consistent with government policy failure in a centrally planned economy in which the government is unable to easily collect and respond to new information in the presence of an aggregate shock to production.

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Bibliographic Reference

Meng, X, Qian, N and Yared, P. 2010. 'The Institutional Causes of China's Great Famine, 1959-61'. London, Centre for Economic Policy Research. https://cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=8012