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Title: Animal Spirits, Financial Crises and Persistent Unemployment

Author(s): Roger E A Farmer

Publication Date: June 2011

Keyword(s): animal spirits, old-Keynesian, rational bubbles and unemployment

Programme Area(s): International Macroeconomics

Abstract: This paper develops a rational expectations model with multiple equilibrium unemployment rates where the price of capital may be unbounded above. I argue that this property is an important feature of any rational-agent explanation of a financial crisis, since for the expansion phase of the crisis to be rational, investors must credibly believe that asset prices could keep increasing forever with positive probability. I explain the sudden crash in asset prices that precipitates a financial crisis as a large negative self-fulfilling shock to the expectation of the future price of capital. This shock causes a permanent reduction in wealth and consumption and a permanent increase in the unemployment rate. My work suggests that economic policies designed to reduce the volatility of asset market movements will significantly increase economic welfare.

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Bibliographic Reference

Farmer, R. 2011. 'Animal Spirits, Financial Crises and Persistent Unemployment'. London, Centre for Economic Policy Research. https://cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=8439