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Discussion Paper Details

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Title: Stories of the Twentieth Century for the Twenty-First

Author(s): Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas and Maurice Obstfeld

Publication Date: August 2011

Keyword(s): banking crisis, Credit boom, currency crisis, emerging markets, leverage and sovereign default

Programme Area(s): International Macroeconomics

Abstract: A key precursor of twentieth-century financial crises in emerging and advanced economies alike was the rapid buildup of leverage. Those emerging economies that avoided leverage booms during the 2000s also were most likely to avoid the worst effects of the twenty-first century?s first global crisis. A discrete-choice panel analysis using 1973-2010 data suggests that domestic credit expansion and real currency appreciation have been the most robust and significant predictors of financial crises, regardless of whether a country is emerging or advanced. For emerging economies, however, higher foreign exchange reserves predict a sharply reduced probability of a subsequent crisis.

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Bibliographic Reference

Gourinchas, P and Obstfeld, M. 2011. 'Stories of the Twentieth Century for the Twenty-First'. London, Centre for Economic Policy Research. https://cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=8518