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Title: Markov-switching dynamic factor models in real time
Author(s): Maximo Camacho, Gabriel Pérez-Quirós and Pilar Poncela
Publication Date: February 2012
Keyword(s): Business Cycles, Output Growth and Time Series
Programme Area(s): International Macroeconomics
Abstract: We extend the Markov-switching dynamic factor model to account for some of the specificities of the day-to-day monitoring of economic developments from macroeconomic indicators, such as ragged edges and mixed frequencies. We examine the theoretical benefits of this extension and corroborate the results through several MonteCarlo simulations. Finally, we assess its empirical reliability to compute real-time inferences of the US business cycle.
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Bibliographic Reference
Camacho, M, Pérez-Quirós, G and Poncela, P. 2012. 'Markov-switching dynamic factor models in real time'. London, Centre for Economic Policy Research. https://cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=8866