Discussion Paper Details

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Title: Debt Deleveraging and the Exchange Rate

Author(s): Pierpaolo Benigno and Federica Romei

Publication Date: April 2012

Keyword(s): Current Account adjustment

Programme Area(s): International Macroeconomics

Abstract: Deleveraging from high debt can provoke deep recession with significant international side effects. The exchange rate of the deleveraging country will depreciate in the short run and appreciate in the long run. The real interest rate will fall by more than in the rest of the world. Bounds and policies that constrain the adjustment can prolong and deepen the recession. Early exit strategies from accommodating monetary policy can be quite harmful, as can such other policies as keeping interest rates too high during the deleveraging period. The analysis also applies to a monetary union facing internal adjustment of current account imbalances.

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Bibliographic Reference

Benigno, P and Romei, F. 2012. 'Debt Deleveraging and the Exchange Rate'. London, Centre for Economic Policy Research.