Discussion Paper Details

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Title: Has the Euro changed the Business Cycle?

Author(s): Zeno Enders, Philip Jung and Gernot Müller

Publication Date: November 2012

Keyword(s): cross-country spillovers, EMU, euro, European business cycles, exchange rate regime, monetary policy and optimum currency area

Programme Area(s): International Macroeconomics

Abstract: In contrast to the notion that the exchange-rate regime is non-neutral, there is little evidence that EMU has systematically changed the European business cycle. In fact, we find the volatility of macroeconomic variables largely unchanged before and after the introduction of the euro. Exceptions are a strong decline in real exchange rate volatility and a considerable increase in cross-country correlations. To account for this finding, we develop a two-country business cycle model which is able to replicate key features of European data. In particular, the model correctly predicts a limited effect of EMU on standard business cycles statistics. However, further analysis reveals that the euro has changed the nature of the cycle through its impact on the transmission mechanism. Cross-country spillovers have become relatively more, domestic shocks relatively less important in accounting for economic fluctuations under EMU. This explains why there is little change in unconditional volatilities.

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Bibliographic Reference

Enders, Z, Jung, P and Müller, G. 2012. 'Has the Euro changed the Business Cycle?'. London, Centre for Economic Policy Research.