DP10010 The Phillips Curve in Ireland: 1935 - 2012
|Author(s):||Stefan Gerlach, Reamonn Lydon, Rebecca Stuart|
|Publication Date:||June 2014|
|Keyword(s):||Historical statistics, Import prices, Inflation, Ireland, Output gap|
|JEL(s):||E3, E4, N14|
|Programme Areas:||International Macroeconomics, Economic History|
|Link to this Page:||cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=10010|
We study the determination of Irish inflation between 1935 and 2012 using a Phillips curve approach. We find that a simple backward-looking Phillips Curve that incorporates import prices is stable over the sample period and passes a number of diagnostic tests. We also consider the importance of UK and euro area inflation for Irish inflation. While UK inflation is significant in the period 1935 ? 1979, and euro area inflation is significant in the period 1980 ? 2012, we present evidence that suggests that these findings reflect common shocks.